THE CITIZEN ON MARS

By the time Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahamdinejads had sent the so-called “love letter” to U.S. President George Bush a month ago, it was a point that even the sternest political analyst could never mistake for. Iran wants a way out of this scorching conflict that resulted from its not-too-nascent nuclear activity and America’s intense aversion to such. It wasn’t in a very meek tone but maybe Almajinehad had thought it could take President Bush out of his back. But of course, we could only subsume all too well how President Bush must have reacted to it, and what could be his mighty response. It would have been a “Go To Hell!” kind of thing, for President Bush is never the sort of guy that could trust a peculiar individual like Almajinehad.

But now, the rhetoric spewing from Iran’s side continues to become more virulent as Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni warns just yesterday of a severe oil shortage/crisis if America “misbehaves” towards Iran, meaning if military option is used by America against the Islamic state east of Iraq. Ayatollah Khameni remarked strongly that any such “misbehavior” could cause a great toll on the oil security in the middle-east region and of course, the rest of the world (Actually, one need not be a rocket-scientist to realize that). Perhaps due to this probability, oil-hungry China is not so inclined to approve a severe sanctioning of Iran and is even poised to veto any decision of the United Nation Security Council to that effect. Russia had also expressed its dissent over such suggested action, and this is probably due of its huge arms-trade with it.

Now despite these latest rants from the Ayatollah, Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki continually maintains that his country does not intend to build nuclear weapons and said that any nuclear activity is solely for peaceful purposes, like consumer and industrial energy purposes. In his own words:

“Nuclear weapons have no place in Iran’s military and defense doctrine,… nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction are obstacles to international peace and security.”

The Ayatollah Khameni also said:

“(Iran) is not pursuing a nuclear bomb. This is not true, and it is an absolute lie. We are not pursuing an atomic bomb. We have no plans that would require us to have a bomb. This is against Islamic principles. Building and maintaining a nuclear bomb costs a lot, and we do not need this. “

Still, the U.S. Government takes these statements lowly and wouldn’t have any of it. President Almajinehad’s unkind words against Israel and its Jewish population some months ago might have stuck so well that President Bush now appears to be hell-bent to see to it that Iran stop its nuclear activity by hook or by crook. (U.S. State Secretary Condoleezza Rice had demanded Iran to respond to an EU compromise in a week’s time.)

Could one actually believe that Iran may not verge into weaponry once it acquires an advanced nuclear technology? Maybe one could assume that it is merely preparing itself for a future where many alternative form of energy—like ethanol and hydrogen-fuel—would be more available in large quantity and at much-popular prices. With recent advancements in fuel technology, there’d be a time where oil prices could dip to the lowest minimum as transports and factories could switch to more environmentally-friendly form of energy and are readily available from a wider range of suppliers. Production of hybrid cars for example, those that run on a combination of gas and electricity, are slowly on the rise. And if such model could be sold at regular prices—like the ones commonly bought by car buyers today—then the demand for gasoline could of course stumble down in the near future like Jack did from a hill. This likelihood would of course affect the viability of some economies like that of Iran and other oil-producing countries. So perhaps Iran had to decide whether to swim or drown.

Meanwhile, the European Community has recently formulated a compromise that could just convince Iran to completely abandon its nuclear ambition. Although much of the compromise is still largely unknown (until Iran had been informed of it in the coming days), it is said to be a proposal for cooperation in energy concerns.

Could Iran take this deal offered by EU and finally find an escape route from this brimming quagmire? Maybe President Almajinehad will take advantage of what could be his last opportunity to undo this disorder that he had fanned all to well in recent months. Maybe he should think hard about it. An economic embargo against Iran may be the last thing he needs. Iraq had been sanctioned in the past and had been affected by it so severely. There could be a no way out for Iran if the embargo is finally instituted.

With an economic embargo at hand, it would be just harder for Iran to swim and so much easier for it to sink.